S&P 500 Near Highs, Here's Where It Will Be December 1st

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Hey Options Traders,

The market seems to be confident staying at all time highs, but is this just GREED?

I’m going to break down the odds of $SPX going to $6000 and if it’s even probable. This will help you gear up your positions to profit the most.

Here’s what we are covering:

1. Deep dive into the VIX and where fear could go.

2. In depth analysis of where the market makers are pricing SPX in December.

3. $GOOGL blowout earnings, what i’m doing next.

$VIX (S&P 500 Volatility Index) - Fear Index

Elections are still arousing fear into this market as we can see the $VIX has been chilling around $20 for weeks. There is still a 20% chance we can see $VIX at 25 by the end of November which means the market makers are pricing in a small probability of one more pullback in the market.

If this happens, I feel this would be a “buy the dip” opportunity. There’s an 80% chance we end up below 15 by end of November so I am playing this directional bet. Meaning I am 100% invested right now as I think the $SPX is going much higher.

In fact, I think its going to this exact price…

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$SPX (S&P 500)

With SPX trading near all time highs in conjunction with the VIX still elevated. I believe we are headed to $6052.00.

Why that exact number you might ask…

Well that’s exactly what the market makers are pricing into the December options. About $214 dollars higher or lower from this point. As you can see here…

Now if we got a downside pullback because of a negative reaction to elections, we could get a dip all the way down near $5600. I don’t think that will happen, but play the opportunity accordingly. I’m 100% in and i’m fine getting assigned on the stocks I have cash secured puts on if the dip happens.

$GOOGL Blowout Earnings

WOW! I kind of expected great earnings from Google, but I did not expect such a drastic move. I closed out all the cash secured puts I sold earlier this month and put on some new positions.

In my opinion, I think Google is still undervalued, but the stock went up a little more then anticipated.

Today I sold the November 15th 172.5 Puts and collected $180 each. I’m fine owning at $172.5 if Google pulls back. The blue line is where it would have to drop to for me to get assigned the shares.

That is all for today! See you friday.

-Ryan