Oil Spikes But Markets Rally As Client Turns $1M Loss Into 70% Gain

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Hey Options Trader,

Markets showed impressive resilience today, and we’re starting to see a shift in tone that could set up a strong move higher if conditions continue to improve. Despite rising oil prices and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, buyers stepped in aggressively and pushed key indices higher. There are still a few key levels and catalysts to watch closely, but overall, this was a constructive day that gives us insight into how institutions may be positioning. In today’s newsletter, I’ll break down what I’m seeing, highlight a powerful client turnaround, and walk you through a high-probability trade setup.

Here’s what we are covering:

1. My market outlook and key levels to watch

2. Client Spotlight and recent community wins

3. Free Trade of the Week

4. Bonus resource and stock breakdown video

Market Snapshot

Today was a very bullish day for the markets. Even with crude oil pushing up to $112 per barrel and $USO ( ▲ 0.74% ) hitting a new high, we still saw strength across the board with $SPY ( ▲ 0.47% ) closing above the 20-day moving average at $658, which also aligns with the mid Bollinger Band. That’s a strong signal, especially given the recent volatility. The next key level to watch is the 200-day moving average around the 662 to 663 area. A clean break and close above that level would open the door for continued upside.

The $VIX ( ▲ 1.26% ) is slowly selling off, currently sitting in the mid-24 range. While fear is still elevated, we want to see that continue trending down toward 20 for a more sustained rally. Geopolitical headlines are still front and center, with Iran’s deadline regarding the Strait of Hormuz approaching. Any resolution or positive developments there could act as a strong catalyst for markets. From a positioning standpoint, I’m currently at about 8.5% cash, slightly under my ideal 10 to 15% range, and I do plan on freeing up some capital this week to stay aligned with my VIX-based allocation strategy.

Client Spotlight

Mike is a perfect example of what disciplined execution looks like over time. After facing over a million dollar loss, he stayed consistent with the strategy, rebuilt his account, and went on to generate a 70% return in 2025. It’s one of the most powerful transformations we’ve seen.

On top of that, we’re continuing to see strong results across the community, with one client up $52,000 this year at an 8% return, and another posting over $32,000 in gains year to date. That consistency, especially in a tougher market environment, is what really stands out.

Free Trade of the Week

Ticker: $CCJ ( ▼ 1.86% )  
Strategy: Sell the May 8th $97 cash secured put
Premium Collected: $305
Duration: 32 days
ROI: 3.26%
Annualized Return (compounded monthly): 47.0%
Risk: Assignment risk at $97, which would result in owning shares at a strong discount below the lower Bollinger Band

Cameco is a leader in uranium production, which continues to see strong demand as energy needs rise, particularly with data center expansion. The $97 strike sits below the lower Bollinger Band, offering a favorable entry point if assigned. This setup allows us to generate strong premium while positioning into one of the top companies in the sector at a discounted level.

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Bonus Video

In my latest market update video, I break down Hood, SoFi, Palantir, and IREN, along with two stocks I’m actively looking to add more exposure to on pullbacks. It’s a great resource to understand how I’m navigating this environment in real time.

Consistency compounds faster than intensity.

Talk soon,

Ryan

Disclaimer: This newsletter is for educational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instruments. Trading involves risk, and you are responsible for your own investment decisions.