Iran Strike Volatility + Quan’s 6% Month During The Selloff

Hey Options Trader,

This week is one where emotion will try to override logic. Headlines surrounding the Iran strike are creating uncertainty, but when you zoom out and study history instead of reacting to fear, the data tells a very different story. I’m positioning aggressively bullish and prepared to lean into weakness if we get it. Volatility is not something to run from. It is something to deploy into when managed correctly.

Here’s what we are covering:

1. Historical war data and what markets have done afterward

2. Client Spotlight: Quan’s 6% month in peak volatility

3. Special release: Below Cost Basis Covered Call tutorial

Market Snapshot

My thesis right now is very bullish. If we see weakness due to the Iran strike, I will be taking advantage of it. A panic flush at the open would actually be constructive in my view. If we dip toward the $580 area on $QQQ ( ▼ 0.32% ) short term, that type of fear-driven move would present opportunity. I’m also watching the $VIX ( ▲ 6.6% ) closely. If we see it spike past 21 or 22, that would signal elevated fear and a strong window to start deploying capital. I’m currently sitting at 16% cash and would look to bring that down toward 10% if we get that sell-off.

Now let’s zoom out and look at history instead of headlines.

📊 Historical Forward Returns After War Starts

🇺🇸 Pearl Harbor 1941
6 months: approximately +2%
12 months: approximately +15%

🇰🇷 Korean War 1950
6 months: approximately +12%
12 months: approximately +24%

🇻🇳 Vietnam escalation 1965
6 months: approximately +8%
12 months: approximately +14%

🇮🇶 Gulf War 1990
6 months: approximately +14%
12 months: approximately +20%

🇦🇫 Afghanistan 2001
6 months: approximately +2%
12 months: approximately +15%

🇮🇶 Iraq War 2003
6 months: approximately +21%
12 months: approximately +35%

🇺🇦 Russia Ukraine invasion 2022
6 months: approximately -4%
12 months: approximately +7%

📈 Big Picture

Across major war starts since World War II:

• Average 6 month return: roughly +8% to +10%
• Average 12 month return: roughly +15% to +18%
• The majority of 12 month periods were positive
• Negative outcomes were usually tied to recession or aggressive rate tightening, not just war alone

🧠 My Take

Markets tend to price in uncertainty quickly. Once capital reallocates and outcomes become clearer, historically returns have skewed positive over the following six to twelve months. That does not mean we ignore risk. It means we manage cash properly, sell premium intelligently, and avoid emotional decision making.

Because of this framework, I’m also watching potential capital rotation into defense and safety plays such as $PLTR ( ▲ 0.92% ) , $KTOS ( ▼ 6.47% ) , $LMT ( ▲ 2.56% ) , as well as oil and precious metal exposure including $XOM ( ▲ 2.67% ) , $CDE ( ▲ 2.22% ) , $GLD ( ▲ 1.31% ) , and $SLV ( ▲ 5.64% ) .

Client Spotlight

We just interviewed Quan, who joined 30 days ago and stepped into one of the most volatile environments we’ve seen in tech. While many investors were freezing up, he leaned into volatility using our OTU principles and sold puts into fear. The result was a 6% month in his first 30 days. He executed with discipline during chaos, and that is exactly what this strategy is built for. We are also continuing to see multiple members navigating assignments and volatility with confidence and consistency.

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Bonus Video

This week’s bonus resource is highly requested. I released my Below Cost Basis Covered Call tutorial, a strategy I typically reserve for Options Trading University members. With many traders assigned at higher prices on names like Hood, SoFi, and Palantir, this strategy allows you to continue collecting income on your shares while waiting for recovery. If you are sitting on underwater shares, this is a must-watch.

Stay focused, stay tactical, and use this week’s volatility to your advantage.

Talk soon,

Ryan

Disclaimer: This newsletter is for educational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instruments. Trading involves risk, and you are responsible for your own investment decisions.